PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU MAY 20 2004

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2004
                                                                               .
SST ANOMALIES CURRENTLY AVERAGE WITHIN 0.5 DEGREE C OF NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH SOME LARGER NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES EAST OF THE 120W.  THE VARIOUS STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL MODELS FOR
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE MOSTLY PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE ENSO-NEUTRAL RANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTH...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT THE ENSO STATE WILL BE BY LATER IN THE YEAR.  THE
CONSENSUS OPINION IS THAT SST ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE NEUTRAL ENSO
RANGE IN JUNE.  NO IMPACTS OF ENSO ON THE U.S. CLIMATE ARE EXPECTED DURING JUNE.

WITH LITTLE FORCING FROM EQUATORIAL SSTS DUE TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS...THIS
MONTHS NUMERICAL CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE HIGH
RELIABILITY.  THEREFORE THE ANOMALY PATTERNS PREDICTED BY THE MODELS ARE
REFLECTED ONLY WHERE THERE IS SUPPORT FROM OTHER TOOLS.  THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR JUNE IS BASED PRIMARILY ON LONG-TERM TRENDS AS REFLECTED IN THE
OCN  TOOL...THE CCA TOOL BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED SEASONAL MEAN PATTERNS OF
ATMOSPHERIC AND SURFACE PARAMETERS...AND CAS CONSTRUCTED ANALOG SOIL MOISTURE
TOOL BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS.  THIS LATTER TOOL WAS THE
PRIMARY DETERMINANT OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR JUNE...AS OCN AND CCA
HAD FEW RELIABLE SIGNALS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ARE PREDICTED ON
THE BASIS OF OCN WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM CCA.  RECENT ABNORMALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND A CAS FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS IS THE REASON FOR THE BREAK IN THE AREA OF FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THAT REGION...DESPITE OCN.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
A SIGNIFICANT PART OF ALASKA ARE BASED ON OCN AND CCA...ALTHOUGH OPPOSED BY
THE SFM MODEL OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND BY THE SMT TOOL ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.

THE SFM MODEL INDICATES ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CAS TOOL EXCEPT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECASTER: R. MARTIN

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY JUNE 17 2004.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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