PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU APR 15 2004 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2004 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY. DRY CONDITIONS GET RELIEVED DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER HAWAII. FOR 2004 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 14.65 INCHES (127 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 16.91 INCHES (242 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 19.53 INCHES (230 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 48.67 INCHES (147 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN MAY 2004. CCA PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 73.8 0.6 EC 5.9 7.4 8.1 KAHULUI A40 75.7 0.7 EC 0.2 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU A40 77.6 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.8 LIHUE A40 75.7 0.6 EC 1.2 1.7 2.6 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY-JUN-JUL 2004 TO MAY-JUN-JUL 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SST ANOMALIES WERE NEAR ZERO IN ALL OF THE NIÑO REGIONS DURING MARCH 2004. BY THE END OF THE MONTH - NEAR-AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SSTS WERE OBSERVED EVERYWHERE EAST OF 150°W - WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5°C (~1°F) BEING RESTRICTED TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION BETWEEN INDONESIA AND 175°W. SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN MID-MARCH WERE GENERALLY POSITIVE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND NEGATIVE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THIS REPRESENTS A STEEPER-THAN-AVERAGE THERMOCLINE SLOPE - WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC (NIÑO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN -0.5°C AND +0.5°C) THROUGH THE NORTHERN SUMMER 2004. IT IS LIKELY THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS. CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM MJJ 2004 THROUGH JAS 2004. CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS SUMMER. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2004 A40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 A40 75.9 0.4 A40 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2004 A35 76.3 0.4 A40 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2004 A40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 A40 78.6 0.5 A40 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2004 A35 79.1 0.5 A40 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2004 A40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 A40 80.7 0.4 A40 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2004 A35 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2004 A40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 A40 78.8 0.3 A40 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2004 A35 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MAY 20 2004 $$