PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU MAR 18 2004

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2004
                                                                               .
SST ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE DECLINED 
SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST MONTH.  DEPARTURES AVERAGE 0.5 C OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE 
WEST OF THE DATELINE BUT NEAR ZERO TO 0.5 C BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF ABOUT 120W.  A 
MAJORITY OF STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL MODELS - ALONG WITH THE OFFICIAL CPC 
FORECAST - FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FOR APRIL.  THE 
IMPACT OF ENSO ON U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DURING APRIL WILL LIKELY
BE INSIGNIFICANT.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY - AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE CFS MODEL AND
COMPOSITES BASED UPON THE CPC ENSO FORECAST - WHICH CALLED FOR A HIGH LIKELI-
HOOD OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE EC IS PREDICTED. 

THE CFS AND SFS PREDICT ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR
APRIL.  CCA PREDICTS SUB-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.  
ELSEWHERE THERE ARE NO RELIABLE INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION.    

FORECASTER: E. OLENIC

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY APRIL 15 2004.
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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