PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU FEB 19 2004 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2004 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY. DRY CONDITIONS GET RELIEVED DUE TO THE RAINFALL ON JANUARY. FOR 2004 THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 6.73 INCHES (146 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.88 INCHES (255 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 7.90 INCHES (214 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 13.14 INCHES (135 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN MARCH 2004. CCA PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 72.1 0.6 N35 5.7 12.1 15.4 KAHULUI A40 73.2 0.6 N35 1.4 2.0 2.9 HONOLULU A40 74.5 0.5 N35 0.7 1.2 2.5 LIHUE A40 72.9 0.5 N35 1.5 2.5 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2004 TO MAR-APR-MAY 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINED WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND NEAR AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING JANUARY. SINCE EARLY DECEMBER 2003 - SST ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED IN ALL OF THE NIŅO REGIONS. ENHANCED CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN IN LATE NOVEMBER - SHIFTED EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY LATE DECEMBER AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BY EARLY JANUARY. AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTED EASTWARD - THE EQUATORIAL EASTERLIES WEAKENED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC AND WESTERLIES DEVELOPED NEAR THE DATE LINE (180°W). AT THE CURRENT RATE OF PROPAGATION - ENHANCED CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING FEBRUARY - ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLIES. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH MARCH 2004. THEREAFTER - THE FORECASTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY. CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM MAM 2004 THROUGH MJJ 2004. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MAM 2004. SOME TOOLS INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS SUMMER. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2004 A40 72.8 0.5 N40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 A40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 A35 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 A40 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2004 EC 76.3 0.4 A40 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2004 A40 74.4 0.6 N40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 A40 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 A35 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 A40 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2004 EC 79.1 0.5 A40 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2004 A40 76.0 0.4 N40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 A35 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 EC 80.7 0.4 A40 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2004 EC 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2004 A40 74.4 0.4 N40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 A35 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A40 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2004 EC 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MAR 18 2004 $$