PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST THU FEB 19 2004

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2004
                                                                               .
SST ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE BEEN
MODULATED BY SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE PAST MONTH...BUT ON THE WHOLE
HAVE HELD STEADY OR DECREASED...WITH DEPARTURES AVERAGING 0.5 C OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN BUT NEAR TO 0.5 C BELOW NORMAL
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  A MAJORITY OF THE VARIOUS STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL
MODELS THAT PREDICT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF NEAR NORMAL
ENSO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL CPC FORECAST ALSO
EXPECTS NEAR NORMAL ENSO THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING.  THEREFORE IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THE IMPACT OF ENSO ON U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DURING MARCH WILL BE VERY SMALL.

THIS MONTHS NUMERICAL CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED
BY THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC...WHICH FAVOR AN
ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THIS WOULD OFTEN BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST...BUT THE MODELS DO NOT
SHOWN THIS FEATURE WITH ANY UNANIMITY.  SUCH A CIRCULATION PATTERN WOULD RESULT
IN COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA.  SINCE THIS PATTERN IS NOT
FORCED BY STRONG ENSO CONDITIONS...THE RELIABILITY OF THE MODELS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYED FOR 3 MONTH
AVERAGE INTERVALS AND SO ARE ONLY PARTLY APPLICABLE TO THE MARCH OUTLOOK.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTHWARD...INDICATED
BY BOTH THE CFS MODEL AND BY THE OCN...CCA...AND CAS STATISTICAL TOOLS.  EQUAL
CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PARTLY DUE TO THE
LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE FALLEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WINTER...
WHICH OFTEN LEADS TO COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
CONFLICTING TOOLS LED TO A FORECAST OF EQUAL CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  INTRASEASONAL (MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION) ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...WHICH CAN RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
VARIABILITY IN BOTH THE CIRCULATION AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S.  DUE TO THIS EXPECTED VARIABILITY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS AND LACK OF STRONG INDICATIONS IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FORECAST ANYWHERE.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL
INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN
PORTION...THE LARGE VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE DURING RECENT MONTHS AND LACK OF
STRONG AND COHERENT INDICATIONS FROM THE STATISTICAL TOOLS MAKES THIS FORECAST
LESS CERTAIN SO EQUAL CHANCES WAS FORECAST FOR THE STATE.

MANY OF THE TOOLS INDICATE ABNORMALLY WET CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...CENTERED ON SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THESE TOOLS INCLUDE THE CCA...
OCN...CAS...AND SOME NUMERICAL MODELS.  THE SMT AND CAS TOOLS HAVE A SMALL
INDICATION OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  ELSEWHERE
THERE ARE NO RELIABLE INDICATIONS FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION.    

FORECASTER: R. MARTIN

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY MARCH 18 2004.
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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