PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST THU JAN 15 2004

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2004
                                                                               .
SST ANOMALIES DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC DURING THE PAST MONTH ... WITH DEPARTURES AVERAGING .5 TO 1 DEGREE C 
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN... AND MORE THAN PLUS 1 
DEGREE C NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE.  SSTS WERE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC.  A MAJORITY OF THE VARIOUS STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL MODELS 
THAT PREDICT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF NEAR NORMAL 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL CPC FORECAST ALSO EXPECTS 
NEAR NORMAL SSTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING.  THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE IMPACT OF ENSO ON U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DURING 
FEBRUARY WILL BE VERY SMALL AT BEST.  

THIS MONTHS NUMERICAL CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED
BY THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC ... WHICH FAVOR AN 
ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  THIS CIRCULATION PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN COLDER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WITH ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND ALASKA.  SINCE THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORCED BY 
STRONG ENSO CONDITIONS ... THE RELIABILITY OF THE MODELS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
HIGH. THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST 
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTHWARD ... INDICATED BY BOTH 
THE MODELS AND BY THE STATISTICAL TOOLS. EQUAL CHANCES IS FORECAST IN THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PARTLY DUE TO THE LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE ALREADY 
FALLEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WINTER ... WHICH OFTEN LEADS TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED.  INTRASEASONAL (MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATIONS) 
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST MONTH ... WHICH CAN RESULT IN AN 
INCREASE IN VARIABILITY IN BOTH THE CIRCULATION AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  DUE TO THIS EXPECTED VARIABILITY ... BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ... WHERE A FEW VERY COLD 
PERIODS CAN DOMINATE THE MONTHLY AVERAGE.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS INDICATE ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA ... THE LARGE VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE DURING 
THE EARLY PART OF THE WINTER MAKES THIS FORECAST LESS CERTAIN ... SO EQUAL 
CHANCES WAS FORECAST THERE.

MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA DURING THE FEBRUARY - APRIL SEASON.  THIS SIGNAL ALSO APPEARS 
IN THE MONTHLY CCA TOOLS AND IN THE FEBRUARY FORECAST FROM THE NCEP COUPLED 
MODEL. THE CCA TOOL ALSO HAS A SMALL INDICATION OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST ... WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SEASONAL FORECAST.  
ELSEWHERE THERE ARE NO RELIABLE INDICATIONS FOR FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION.    

FORECASTER: M. HALPERT

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19 2004.
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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