PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU DEC 18 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAN 2004 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MODEST DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS - ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD SIDES. FOR 2003 THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 32.62 INCHES (93 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.86 INCHES (51% PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 10.47 INCHES (66 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 81.28 INCHES (70 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA AND SMT TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN JANUARY 2004. CCA PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 71.6 0.5 N35 3.5 7.5 11.0 KAHULUI A40 71.9 0.6 N35 1.3 2.2 2.9 HONOLULU A40 72.9 0.6 N35 0.7 1.4 3.5 LIHUE A40 71.7 0.6 N35 1.4 3.1 4.8 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAN-FEB-MAR 2004 TO JAN-FEB-Mar 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINED WARMER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN DURING NOVEMBER. EQUATORIAL OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +0.5°C (~1°F) ABOVE AVERAGE WERE FOUND IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN INDONESIA AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. DEPARTURES GREATER THAN +1°C WERE FOUND BETWEEN 150°E AND 170°W. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR-AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC (NIÑO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN -0.5°C AND +0.5°C) THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2003-2004. CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM JFM 2004 THROUGH MAM 2004. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM JFM 2004 THROUGH MAM 2004. SOME TOOLS INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SUMMER. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2004 A45 71.8 0.4 N40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 A45 72.1 0.4 N40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 A40 72.8 0.5 N35 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 A40 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2004 EC 76.3 0.4 A40 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2004 A45 72.4 0.5 N40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 A45 73.2 0.5 N40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 A40 74.4 0.6 N35 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 A40 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2004 EC 79.1 0.5 A40 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2004 A45 73.5 0.4 N40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 A45 74.5 0.4 N40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 A40 76.0 0.4 N35 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 EC 80.7 0.4 A40 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2004 EC 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2004 A45 72.4 0.4 N40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 A45 73.1 0.4 N40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 A40 74.4 0.4 N35 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A40 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2004 EC 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JAN 15 2004 $$