PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU NOV 20 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DEC 2003 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS - ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD SIDES. FOR 2003 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 27.88 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.29 INCHES (55% PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.42 INCHES (69 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 62.96 INCHES (63 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN AND SMT TOOLS INDICATE SLIGHTLY WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN DECEMBER. CCA PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A35 72.4 0.5 N35 5.8 8.3 12.0 KAHULUI A35 73.6 0.5 N35 1.3 2.3 2.9 HONOLULU A35 74.5 0.7 N35 1.1 1.5 2.9 LIHUE A35 73.2 0.5 N35 2.2 3.6 4.7 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DEC-JAN-FEB 2004 TO DEC-JAN-FEB 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. RECENT CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE EL NINO OF 2002 ENTERED ITS MATURE PHASE BY DECEMBER AND NOW HAS DISSIPATED. SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5°C (~1°F) WERE OBSERVED IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN INDONESIA AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. HOWEVER - THE 850-HPA ZONAL WIND INDICES (CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC VALUES NEAR ZERO) - OLR INDEX (NEAR ZERO) - 200-HPA ZONAL WIND INDEX (NEAR ZERO) - SOI AND EQSOI (NEAR ZERO) ALL INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS (NIŅO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN -0.5°C AND +0.5°C FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2003 AND EARLY 2004. HOWEVER - OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE SUITE OF FORECASTS TOWARDS SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS - CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED TRENDS IN SST ANOMALIES. IF THE OBSERVED NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY FOR OCTOBER 2003 (+0.6°C) PERSISTS THROUGH NOVEMBER - THE THREE-MONTH (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) RUNNING MEAN VALUE OF THIS INDEX WOULD REACH THE NOAA THRESHOLD (+0.5°C) FOR EL NIŅO. THUS, IT IS LIKELY THAT BORDERLINE EL NIŅO/ ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER OF 2003-04. CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM DJF 2004 THROUGH FMA 2004. CCA AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM DJF 2004 THROUGH JFM 2004. SOME TOOLS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SUMMER. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2004 A35 72.0 0.4 N35 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 A35 71.8 0.4 N35 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 A35 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 A35 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2004 EC 76.3 0.4 A35 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2004 A35 72.5 0.5 N35 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 A35 72.4 0.5 N35 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 A35 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 A35 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2004 EC 79.1 0.5 A35 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2004 A35 73.5 0.4 N35 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 A35 73.5 0.4 N35 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 A35 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 EC 80.7 0.4 A35 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2004 EC 81.2 0.4 A35 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2004 A35 72.4 0.4 N35 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 A35 72.4 0.4 N35 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 A35 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A35 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2004 EC 79.3 0.3 A35 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY DEC 18 2003 $$