PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST THU NOV 20 2003

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2003
                                                                               .
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC 
THROUGH DECEMBER AND ARE CURRENTLY ON THE THRESHOLD OF A WEAK EL NINO.  WHETHER 
OR NOT THE OCEANIC AND ATMOPSPHERIC INDICES IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REACHES A 
WEAK EL NINO LEVEL OR REMAINS IN NEUTRAL TERRIROTY - IMPACTS ON THE CONTINENTAL 
U.S. FROM THIS VERY WEAK EVENT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.  THERE IS NOT 
LIKELY TO BE ANY STRONG CONSISTENT FORCING  OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO ANY 
PREFERRED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS - SO CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN 
THE CLIMATE IS EXPCECTED.  FOR DETAILS OF EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICS - 
SEE THE DISCUSSION IN THE PMD FOR THE SEASONAL FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM FROM CCA - OCN - AND DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE USED IN THIS 
OUTLOOK.  ALL OF THESE TOOLS INDICATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF WARMTH IN MOST OF 
THE WEST - WITH MOST OF THE MODELS EXTENDING THE WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE 
CAROLINAS - ALTHOUGH NOT VERY STRONGLY IN MOST LOCATIONS.  OCN AND SOME MODELS 
INDICATE MILDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE 
SOUTHWEST.  SINCE SOME MODELS AND SOIL MOISTURE TOOLS WERE INDICATING BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES - THESE 
AREAS WERE LEFT WITH EQUAL CHANCES.  THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALSO LEFT WITH EC 
BECAUSE CURRENT AND PROJECTED WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO COULD 
GIVE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER TO THESE AREAS - RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INVERSION 
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CIRCULATION 
WOULD OTHERWISE INDICATE.   

INDICATIONS FROM MANY OF THE MODELS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE 
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST - AND OCN RATHER STRONGLY FAVORS ABNORMALLY WET 
CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.  A CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS 
FAVORS RELATIVELY DRY CONDIIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  
ELSEWHERE - EC IS INDICATED - INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST WHERE EVEN THOUGH A 
MAJORITY OF THE TOOLS AND MODELS FAVORED DRYNESS - PRECIPITAION ASSOCIATED 
WITH REGIMES SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE CAN PRDOUCE ABOVE MEDIAN TOTALS FOR 
THE MONTH WITH JUST ONE STORM - AN EVENT CONSIDERED QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE 
EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED VARIABILITY IN THE CIRCULATION.  ELSEWHERE IN THE 
CONUS AND IN ALASKA THERE WERE NO CONSISTENT OR SIGNIFICANT INDICATIONS FOR 
PRECIPIATION THAT WOULD WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN EQUAL CHANCES.
  
FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY DECEMBER 18 2003.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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