PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2003 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS - ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD SIDES. FOR 2003 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 24.05 INCHES (93 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.14 INCHES (56% PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.27 INCHES (74 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 59.08 INCHES (65 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN AND SMT TOOLS INDICATE SLIGHTLY WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN NOVMBER. CCA PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A35 74.2 0.4 N35 8.8 12.9 15.8 KAHULUI A35 76.1 0.6 N35 1.0 2.0 2.2 HONOLULU A35 77.4 0.7 N35 0.6 1.0 1.5 LIHUE A35 75.8 0.5 N35 2.3 2.9 3.8 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV-DEC-JAN 2003 TO NOV-DEC-JAN 2004 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. RECENT CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE EL NINO OF 2002 ENTERED ITS MATURE PHASE BY DECEMBER AND NOW HAS DISSIPATED. SHORT-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS ENSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HAWAII. ENSO EFFECTS DURING PERIODS OTHER THAN THE BOREAL LATE SUMMER THROUGH FALL WINTER AND SPRING OF THE MATURE PHASE - ARE NOT VERY NOTEWORTHY. HOWEVER - IN SOME CASES AN ENSO EFFECT CAN BE NOTED IN THE BOREAL WINTER A YEAR AFTER THE MATURE EPISODE BOREAL WINTER. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC HAVE BEEN NEAR AVERAGE IN RECENT MONTHS - WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS THAT WOULD SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE ANOMALOUS WARMING OR COOLING OF SSTS IN THAT REGION. THUS - SLIGHTLY WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS (NIŅO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN -0.5°C AND +0.5°C) FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2003 AND EARLY 2004. HOWEVER - OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE SUITE OF FORECASTS TOWARDS SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONS. THUS - IT IS LIKELY THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER OF 2003-04. CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM NDJ 2003 THROUGH DJF 2004 AND THEN RETURN TO NORMAL FROM JFM 2004 THROUGH NDJ 2004. CCA AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NDJ 2003 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL ON LIHUE. SOME TOOLS INDICATE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ON JFM THROUGH MJJ 2004 AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SUMMER. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2003 A35 72.8 0.4 B35 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2004 A35 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 A35 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2004 EC 76.3 0.4 A35 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2003 A35 73.8 0.5 B35 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2004 A35 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 A35 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2004 EC 79.1 0.5 A35 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2003 A35 75.0 0.5 B35 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2004 A35 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 EC 80.7 0.4 A35 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2004 EC 81.2 0.4 A35 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2003 A35 73.6 0.3 N35 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2004 A35 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A35 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2004 EC 79.3 0.3 A35 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY NOV 20 2003 $$