PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2003
                                                                               .
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH NOVEMBER AND 
MAY REACH THE LEVEL OF WEAK EL NINO BY LATE NOVEMBER.  IMPACTS ON THE 
CONTINENTAL US FROM THIS WEAK EVENT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.  


INDICATIONS FROM FROM CCA - AND DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE USED IN THIS OUTLOOK. 
OCN INDICATIONS ARE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTANT EVERYWHERE.  CCA INDICATES ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE - THE SOUTH - THE SOUTHWEST - THE 
WEST AND FOR FLORIDA.  THE NCEP DYNAMICAL MODEL IS USED TO PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND IN SOUTHERN ALASKA AND SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  

INDICATIONS FROM BOTH THE CCA AND THE NCEP DYNAMICAL MODEL FOR PRECIPITATION 
ARE FOR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO GEORGIA AND EASTERN 
IOWA AND FOR SECTIONS OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA.  ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN ALASKA AND FOR THE DAKOTAS.  ELSEWHERE 
EC IS INDICATED.
  
FORECASTER: E. OLENIC

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) WILL HENCEFORTH BE LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20 2003.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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