PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 30 DAY UPDATE
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
03 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002 

THIS IS A TEST DOCUMENT.

JANUARY 2003

WARM ENSO CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN.  SST
ANOMALIES OF ABOUT 2 DEGREES C EXTEND ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC FROM 
JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE TO ABOUT 160 W.  THERE IS AN ACTIVE MJO IN PROGRESS 
WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER INDONESIA.  THE CURRENT 
MJO ACTIVITY IS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR AN WARM ENSO EVENT AND IS CURRENTLY IN 
A PHASE THAT SUPRESSES THE NORMAL WARM EVENT TELECONNECTIONS.  THUS THE FIRST 
TWO WEEKS IN JANUARY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN STATES.   THE CONVECTIVE PHASE OF THE MJO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD - 
HOWEVER - AND WILL BE IN A POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE EAST CENTRAL 
PACIFIC OCEAN BY MID TO LATE JANUARY  THUS THE SHORT TERM CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF WARM ENSO EVENTS BY MID-JANUARY 
- AND THERE ARE FEW REVISIONS TO THE MONTHLY FORECAST.

THE AO PHASE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENTLY NEGATIVE - AS IT HAS BEEN SINCE MID-
OCTOBER.  THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN EXTENDS NEGATIVE AO CIRCULATION PATTERN WELL 
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH - AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT EXPANSION 
OF THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  
ARCTIC AIR IS CUT OFF FROM THE CONUS BY STRONGER THAN NORMAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER 
WESTERN CANADA - AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS EXPANDED 
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST OF WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE 
REGION.  WARM SSTS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TOGETHER WITH AN EXPECTED WESTERN RIDGE 
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE OVER THE 30 DAY FORECAST FOR JANUARY 
ISSUED EARLIER THIS MONTH.

  THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS HAS BEEN ALTERED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CONDITIONS 
IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY.  THE MONTH WILL START OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE 
FROM THE STANDPOINT OF STORMS AND PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.  
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE FOR A STORM PREDICTED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE 
FIRST FEWDAYS OF JANUARY - AND FOR STORMS AND PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN ALASKA 
SOUTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.THESE SYSTEMS HELP EXPAND THE EXPECTED AREA OF 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG BOTH COASTS.  AN ACTIVE MJO WILL PUT MOST OF THE 
WEST COAST AT RISK FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.  PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO BE HIGH DUE TO 
THE EXPECTED RETURNOF STRONG SOUTHERN JET AS THE MJO PHASE ADVANCES TO A POINT 
WHERE IT COMPLIMENTS EL NINO.  HOWEVER - SINCE THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTH IS 
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE SOUTH - THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IN TEXAS WAS REDUCED SLIGHTLY.  DRY CONDITIONS IN THE OHIO VALLEY 
AND THE GREAT LAKES WERE MOVED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE EASTERN STORM 
TRACK EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MONTH. 


  D. UNGER           

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