PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP 2003 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATED THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS' WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF JULY. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. FOR 2003 THROUGH THE END OF JULY, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 20.66 INCHES (97 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 5.84 INCHES (60% PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.88 INCHES (76 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 43.04 INCHES (60 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN AND SMT TOOLS INDICATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS. CCA PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 76.4 0.5 EC 5.4 8.7 9.9 KAHULUI EC 79.2 0.6 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 HONOLULU EC 81.4 0.5 EC 0.4 0.5 0.9 LIHUE EC 79.4 0.3 EC 1.4 1.8 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP-OCT-NOV 2003 TO SEP-OCT-NOV 2004 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. RECENT CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE EL NINO OF 2002 ENTERED ITS MATURE PHASE BY DECEMBER AND NOW HAS DISSIPATED. SHORT-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS ENSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HAWAII. ENSO EFFECTS DURING PERIODS OTHER THAN THE BOREAL LATE SUMMER THROUGH FALL - WINTER AND SPRING OF THE MATURE PHASE - ARE NOT VERY NOTEWORTHY. HOWEVER - IN SOME CASES AN ENSO EFFECT CAN BE NOTED IN THE BOREAL WINTER A YEAR AFTER THE MATURE EPISODE BOREAL WINTER. CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS DO NOT DECISIVELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER LA NINA OR EL NINO IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EQUATORIAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5°C PERSISTED IN THE REGION WEST OF THE DATE LINE - WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES REMAINED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC - NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. CCA - OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FOR SON 2003 AND THEN RETURN TO NORMAL FROM OND 2003 THROUGH SON 2004. CCA AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SON THROUGH NDJ 2003 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL ON LIHUE. SOME TOOLS INDICATE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ON DJF THROUGH MJJ 2004 AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SUMMER. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2003 A3 75.5 0.4 B3 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2003 EC 74.2 0.4 B3 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2003 EC 72.8 0.4 B3 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2004 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 A2 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2004 EC 76.3 0.4 A2 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2003 A3 77.8 0.5 B3 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2003 EC 75.9 0.5 B3 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2003 EC 73.8 0.5 B3 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2004 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 A2 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2004 EC 79.1 0.5 A2 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2003 A5 79.6 0.5 B3 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2003 EC 77.3 0.5 B3 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2003 EC 75.0 0.5 B3 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2004 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 EC 80.7 0.4 A2 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2004 EC 81.2 0.4 A2 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2003 A3 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2003 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2003 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A2 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2004 EC 79.3 0.3 A2 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES BELOW. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY SEP 18 2003. $$