PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUGUST 2003
                                                                               .
WARM EPISODE (EL NINO) CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
DURING THE BOREAL SPRING MONTHS OF 2003.  THE FOLLOWING TREND TOWARDS NEGATIVE 
NINO34 SST ANOMALIES HAS SLOWED OR REVERSED AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH SEPTEMBER.

INDICATIONS FROM FROM CCA - OCN AND DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE USED IN THIS OUTLOOK. 
SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS DOMINANT TRENDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE.  IN THE INTERIOR WEST 
MANY TOOLS GIVE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT TOOLS HAVE 
A WEAKER SIGNAL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  ABOVE NORMAL COASTAL SSTS WILL HELP 
KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST ABOVE NORMAL.

INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEAK - CONFLICTING AND WITH LOW A-PRIORI 
SKILL.  HENCE WE OPTED FOR EC EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA WHERE A NUMBER OF 
POST-PROCESSED DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE BELOW MEDIAN.
  
FORECASTER: R. MARTIN

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) WILL HENCEFORTH BE LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18 2003.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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