PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THURSDAY JUNE 19 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL 2003 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY AT LEAST ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR 0.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. 2003 YEAR TO DATE THROUGH - 18 JUNE - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE: HILO AIRPORT 30.26 INCHES 27.40 INCHES BELOW NORMAL KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.81 INCHES 0.09 INCHES BELOW NORMAL HONOLULU AIRPORT 5.32 INCHES 3.84 INCHES BELOW NORMAL LIHUE AIRPORT 18.49 INCHES 0.06 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL CCA OCN AND SMT TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS. CCA PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT ALL STATIONS. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A5 75.3 0.4 B5 4.4 5.2 9.1 KAHULUI A5 77.7 0.7 B5 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU A5 79.7 0.5 B5 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE A10 77.8 0.4 B5 0.9 1.3 1.9 . . . . . . . . SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2003 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2004 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. RECENT CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE EL NINO OF 2002 ENTERED ITS MATURE PHASE BY DECEMBER AND NOW HAS DISSIPATED. SHORT-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS ENSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HAWAII. ENSO EFFECTS DURING PERIODS OTHER THAN THE BOREAL LATE SUMMER THROUGH FALL WINTER AND SPRING OF THE MATURE PHASE ARE NOT VERY NOTEWORTHY. HOWEVER IN SOME CASES AN ENSO EFFECT CAN BE NOTED IN THE BOREAL WINTERS A YEAR AFTER THE MATURE EPISODE BOREAL WINTER. THE TROPICAL PACIFIC APPEARED TO HAVE BEGUN A TRANSITION TO LA NINA DURING MAY. HOWEVER IN RECENT WEEKS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND AN INCREASE IN THE HEAT CONTENT OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC HAVE BROUGHT THE CONTINUATION OF THIS TRANSITION INTO QUESTION AND RAISED THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST. CCA OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM JAS THROUGH SON 2003 AND THEN RETURN TO NORMAL FOR OND 2003 THROUGH JAS 2004 EXCEPT FOR HONOLULU WHERE RECENT TRENDS FAVOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST SEASONS. CCA INDICATES SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JAS 2003 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL AT LIHUE. SOME TOOLS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ON DJF THROUGH JFM 2004 AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SUMMER THOUGH THIS IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORMALLY PREDICT AT THIS TIME. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2003 A5 76.3 0.4 B5 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2003 A5 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2003 A5 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2003 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2003 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2004 EC 72.0 0.4 B7 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 EC 71.8 0.4 B7 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2004 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2003 A5 79.1 0.5 B3 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2003 A5 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2003 A2 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2003 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2003 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2004 EC 72.5 0.5 B5 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.5 B5 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2004 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2003 A5 81.2 0.4 B3 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2003 A5 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2003 A5 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2003 A3 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2003 A3 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2004 A3 73.5 0.4 B5 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 A3 73.5 0.4 B5 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 A3 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 A3 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 A3 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 A3 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 A3 80.7 0.4 A2 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2004 A3 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2003 A5 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2003 A5 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2003 A5 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2003 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2003 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 B5 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 B5 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A2 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2004 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 FORECASTER: ED OLENIC NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES BELOW. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 17 2003 $$