PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THURSDAY MAY 15 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN 2003 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS AND A FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL LOW BROUGHT HEAVY SHOWERS TO MANY LOCATIONS IN THE ISLANDS AND IMPROVED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS... HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. FOR 2003 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN LIHUE AIRPORT 15.24 INCHES (105 PERCENT OF NORMAL), HONOLULU AIRPORT 5.03 INCHES (62% PERCENT OF NORMAL), KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.79 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 22.31 INCHES (49 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA, OCN AND SMT TOOLS INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR HONOLULU WITH ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE, WHICH REFLECTS THE HONOLULU RECENT WARMING TRENDS. CCA PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO, HONOLULU AND KAHULUI AND NEAR NORMAL OVER LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 75.3 0.4 B5 4.4 5.2 9.1 KAHULUI EC 77.7 0.7 B3 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU A5 79.7 0.5 B3 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE EC 77.8 0.4 EC 0.9 1.3 1.9 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN-JUL-AUG 2003 TO JUN-JUL-AUG 2004 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. RECENT CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE EL NINO OF 2002 ENTERED ITS MATURE PHASE BY DECEMBER, AND IS NOW NEARLY DISSIPATED. SHORT-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS ENSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HAWAII. ENSO EFFECTS DURING PERIODS OTHER THAN THE BOREAL LATE SUMMER THROUGH FALL, WINTER AND SPRING OF THE MATURE PHASE, ARE NOT VERY NOTEWORTHY. HOWEVER, IN SOME CASES AN ENSO EFFECT CAN BE NOTED IN THE BOREAL WINTERS A YEAR AFTER THE MATURE EPISODE BOREAL WINTER. TOO EARLY TO TAKE LA NINA INTO ACCOUNT. CCA, OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM JJA THROUGH SON 2003 AND THEN RETURN TO NORMAL FOR OND 2003 THROUGH JJA 2004 EXCEPT FOR HONOLULU WHERE RECENT TRENDS FAVOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST SEASONS. CCA INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JJA THROUGH JAS 2003 OVER SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL ON LIHUE. SOME TOOLS INDICATES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ON DJF THROUGH JFM 2004 AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SUMMER. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2003 A2 75.9 0.4 B5 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2003 A2 76.3 0.4 B5 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2003 A2 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2003 A2 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2003 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2003 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2004 EC 72.0 0.4 B7 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 EC 71.8 0.4 B7 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 A2 19.5 24.2 29.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2003 A2 78.6 0.5 B3 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2003 A2 79.1 0.5 B3 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2003 A2 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2003 A2 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2003 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2003 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2004 EC 72.5 0.5 B5 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.5 B5 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 A2 0.8 1.1 1.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2003 A5 80.7 0.4 B3 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2003 A5 81.2 0.4 B3 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2003 A5 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2003 A5 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2003 A3 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2003 A3 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2004 A3 73.5 0.4 B5 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 A3 73.5 0.4 B5 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 A3 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 A3 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 A3 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 A3 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2004 A3 80.7 0.4 A2 0.8 1.2 1.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2003 A2 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2003 A2 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2003 A2 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2003 A2 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2003 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2003 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 B5 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 B5 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A2 4.6 5.6 6.6 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES BELOW. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JUN 19 2003 $$