PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2003
                                                                               .
WARM EPISODE (EL NINO) CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
DURING MARCH AND APRIL 2003.  SST ANOMALIES CONTINUED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC  WHILE LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL EASTERLIES 
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.   DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS THE DEPTH OF THE OCEANIC
THERMOCLINE HAS STEADILY DECREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC CONSISTENT WITH THE APPEARANCE OF COLDER THAN NORMAL SURFACE AND
SUBSURFACE WATER IN THE UPPER OCEAN OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.

THE LATEST STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.  WHILE SOME FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LA NINA WILL DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2003 OTHERS INDICATE A
RESURGENCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE YEAR.  ALL SUCH MODELS HAVE
RELATIVELY LOW SKILL DURING TRANSITION PHASES OF THE ENSO CYCLE.  HOWEVER BASED
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT COLD
EPISODE (LA NINA) CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.  MIDDLE LATITUDE IMPACTS DURING THIS TRANSITION ARE LIKELY
TO BE MINIMAL DURING JUNE.

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATIONS PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR JUNE - AS DO
FORECASTS FROM CCA - OCN AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. 

THE SOIL MOISTURE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TOOL BASED ON DATA THROUGH EARLY MAY GAVE
INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IN JUNE.  ABOVE MEDIAN TEMPERATURES IN THESE REGIONS ARE ALSO SUGGESTED BY SOME
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS - OCN AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION.  

THE SOIL MOISTURE TOOL ALSO FORECAST WET AND COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD - CONSISTENT WITH THE KNOWN STRONG RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOIL MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURE IN THAT REGION IN LATE SPRING.  HOWEVER THE SKILL BASED ON PAST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AT ZERO LAG SHOWED NO SKILL IN THIS
REGION - SO THIS FORECAST WAS DISREGARDED EXCEPT OVER FLORIDA WHERE CCA AND SOME
OF THE DYNAMICAL FORECASTS ALSO SUPPORTED ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.

SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECASTS - INCLUDING NCEP - CCA AND
CONSTRUCTED ANALOG HAVE INDICATIONS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER RECENT RAINS AND WET SOILS
SUGGEST THAT THESE FORECASTS SHOULD BE DISREGARDED - AND SO EC IS FORECAST.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD
TO WESTERN MONTANA BASED ON OCN AND THE DYNAMICAL FORECASTS.    

SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPORT ABOVE MEDIAN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN IN MOST OF ALASKA 
DURING JUNE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE REGIONS WHERE ENHANCED
CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND A WET REGIME ARE SUPPORTED BY CCA AND CONSTRUCTED ANALOG.

FORECASTER: R. W. HIGGINS  

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) WILL HENCEFORTH BE LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY JUNE 19 2003.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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