PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU APR 17 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2003 SSTS HAVE BEEN ABOVE LONG-TERM AVERAGES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS - AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LAST WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED IN THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS - BUT HAVE MODERATED SOMEWHAT IN THE NORTH. CCA AND OCN INDICATED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND HONOLULU. THESE TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATIONS IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW FOR PRECIPITATION. FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A5 73.8 0.6 B5 5.9 7.4 8.1 KAHULUI CL 75.7 0.7 B3 0.2 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU A3 77.6 0.4 CL 0.2 0.4 0.8 LIHUE CL 75.7 0.6 CL 1.2 1.7 2.6 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY-JUN-JUL 2003 TO MAY-JUN-JUL 2004 SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR HILO - KAHALUI - HONOLULU - LIHUI ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF CCA AND OCN. THESE TOOLS GAVE NO CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FOR EITHER TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION IN KAHALUI FOR ANY SEASON. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT GENERALLY WARM SSTS NEAR HAWAII DURING SUMMER. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2003 A5 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2003 A4 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2003 A4 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2003 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2003 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2003 CL 74.2 0.4 CL 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2003 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2004 CL 72.0 0.4 CL 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 CL 71.8 0.4 CL 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 CL 72.1 0.4 CL 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2004 CL 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2003 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2003 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2003 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2003 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2003 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2003 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2003 CL 73.8 0.5 CL 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2004 CL 72.5 0.5 CL 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 CL 72.4 0.5 CL 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 CL 73.2 0.5 CL 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 CL 74.4 0.6 CL 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 CL 75.8 0.6 CL 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2004 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2003 A4 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2003 A5 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2003 A3 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2003 A3 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2003 A3 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2003 A2 77.3 0.5 CL 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2003 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2004 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 CL 74.5 0.4 CL 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 A2 76.0 0.4 CL 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 A2 77.7 0.4 CL 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2004 A2 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2003 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2003 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2003 A2 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2003 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2003 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2003 CL 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2003 CL 73.6 0.3 CL 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2004 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 CL 73.1 0.4 CL 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 CL 74.4 0.4 CL 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2004 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MAY 15 2003 $$