PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU APR 17 2003

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2003
                                                                               .
THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND ENSO-RELATED ATMOSPHERIC INDICES (SOI, 850-HPA
ZONAL WIND INDEX) INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE EL NINO.  THE WEEKLY MEAN
SST MAPS INDICATE NEAR-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS - ALTHOUGH WEEK-TO-WEEK SSTS 
FLUCTUATE GREATLY AND ARE NOT USED TO JUDGE THE STATUS OF ENSO.  EASTERN 
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW THEIR 30-YEAR MEAN AND HAVE 
CONTINUED TO COOL SINCE LAST MONTH - THOUGH THE RATE OF COOLING IS SLOWING.  
MIDDLE LATITUDE IMPACTS FROM ENSO ARE LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL DURING MAY.

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATIONS PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR MAY - AS DO
FORECASTS FROM CCA - OCN AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. 

WET INITIAL SOIL CONDITIONS IN SOUTH TEXAS - COUPLED WITH A KNOWN STRONG
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOIL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE IN THAT REGION IN LATE
SPRING (BORNE-OUT BY THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TEMPERATURE FORECAST) SUGGEST 
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.  DRY INITIAL SOIL MOISTURE SUGGESTS 
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT 
PLAINS. 

EUROPEAN CENTRE-HAMBURG MODEL - IRI AND NCEP MODELS ALL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE DEEP SOUTH - ESPECIALLY TEXAS AND FLORIDA.  THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THE SOUTHEAST.  SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE 
DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER FLORIDA.  THE CONSENSUS FAVORS EXTRA WETNESS 
OVER TEXAS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SOUTHEAST.  THEREFORE EQUAL CHANCES ARE 
GIVEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LATTER REGION.  ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS 
PREDICTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN US - BASED ON CONSTRUCTED ANALOG - OCN AND 
MULTIPLE REGRESSION.

IN ALASKA CCA PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE CMP AND OTHER DYNAMICAL 
MODELS PREDICT WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE
LATTER CATEGORY IS JUDGED TO BE FAVORED THERE.  PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN IN 
ALASKA DURING MAY. 

FORECASTER: E. OLENIC

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) WILL HENCEFORTH BE LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY MAY 15 2003.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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