PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THURSDAY MAR 20 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR 2003 SSTS IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE OVER TO 1.0 DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE ABOVE 29 DEGREES C FROM FROM 175W TO 150E. LOCAL SSTS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII. THE ABSENCE OF NOTEWORTHY LOCAL BELOW NORMAL SST...AN EXPECTED FEATURE DURING A WARM EVENT...LEAVES TREND AS THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL...WHICH INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HONOLULU. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL. STATISTICAL TOOLS HAVE NO RELIABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATIONS FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MONTH. THE NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATES BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL...CONSISTENT WITH THE FIRST 90 PERIOD FROM ITSELF AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS. FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 72.6 0.5 B3 7.6 10.3 11.0 KAHULUI EC 74.3 0.6 B3 0.5 1.0 1.3 HONOLULU A4 76.0 0.5 B3 0.5 0.7 1.0 LIHUE EC 74.1 0.5 B3 1.6 2.7 3.3 . SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR-MAY-JUN 2003 TO APR-MAY-JUN 2004 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. MODERATE TO WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH APRIL OR MAY. THE CONSOLIDATED SST FORECAST SHOWS THE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION DECREASING THROUGH SPRING AND SUMMER. THE NINO 3.4 SST PREDICTION TOOLS WHICH GO INTO THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST DISAGREE ON HOW FAST THE CURRENT WARM ENSO CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN...WITH THE NCEP COUPLED MODEL...MARKOV STATISTICAL TOOL...AND THE CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS KEEPING NINO 3.4 SSTS POSITIVE THROUGH THE FALL WHILE THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG HAS BELOW NORMAL SSTS BY THE SUMMER. PAST EL NINO EPISODES HAVE BEEN WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT THIS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. AT HONOLULU RECENT WARMING TRENDS FAVOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST SEASONS. AT EARLY LEADS THE SMT TOOL ALSO HAS A PREDOMINANTLY WARM SIGNAL AT MOST STATTIONS AS DOES THE COUPLED MODEL. NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS NO RELIABLE INDICATION FOR PRECIPITATION AT ANY LEAD FROM THE STATISTICAL TOOLS...BUT A NUMBER OF NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST THREE LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2003 A3 73.9 0.4 B4 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2003 A3 75.0 0.4 B3 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2003 A3 75.9 0.4 B3 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2003 A3 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2003 A3 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2003 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2003 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2003 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2004 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2003 A3 75.8 0.6 B4 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2003 A3 77.3 0.6 B3 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2003 A3 78.6 0.5 B3 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2003 A3 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2003 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2003 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2003 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2003 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2004 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2003 A4 77.7 0.4 B4 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2003 A4 79.3 0.4 B3 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2003 A4 80.7 0.4 B3 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2003 A5 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2003 A5 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2003 A4 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2003 A4 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2003 A3 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2004 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 A3 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2004 A4 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2003 EC 75.9 0.4 B4 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2003 EC 77.5 0.4 B3 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2003 A3 78.8 0.3 B3 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2003 A3 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2003 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2003 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2003 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2003 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 . FORECASTER: R. MARTIN NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES BELOW. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY APR 17 2003. $$