PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU FEB 20 2003 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2003 SSTS IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEAR 170W. LOCAL SSTS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII. THE ABSENCE OF NOTEWORTHY LOCAL BELOW NORMAL SST...AN EXPECTED FEATURE DURING A WARM EVENT...MADE US DEPART FROM THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS RELEASED LAST MONTH. MOST TOOLS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS. THE SMALLER PROBABILITY ANOMALY FOR HONOLULU IS CAUSED BY THE VERY NARROW BELOW MEDIAN CLASS....TYPICAL FOR A DRY CLIMATE. FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 72.1 0.6 B10 5.7 12.1 15.4 KAHULUI EC 73.2 0.6 B10 1.4 2.0 2.9 HONOLULU EC 74.5 0.5 B05 0.7 1.2 2.5 LIHUE EC 72.9 0.5 B10 1.5 2.5 3.3 . . . . . . . . SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2003 TO MAR-APR-MAY 2004 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. MODERATE EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH APRIL OR MAY. STATISTICAL TOOLS AND NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION DECREASING THROUGH LATE BOREAL WINTER INTO SPRING. NINO 3.4 SST PREDICTION TOOLS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST THE CURRENT WARM ENSO CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN... WITH THE NCEP COUPLED MODEL... MARKOV STATISTICAL TOOL... AND THE CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS KEEPING NINO 3.4 SSTS POSITIVE THROUGH THE FALL... WHILE THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG HAS BELOW NORMAL SSTS BY THE SUMMER. ENSO IS THE PREDOMINANT PREDICTIVE SIGNAL FOR HAWAII ON THIS SERIES OF FORECASTS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY LEADS. PAST EL NINO EPISODES HAVE BEEN WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SINCE THIS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED WE BACK DOWN FROM THE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ISSUED PREVIOUSLY. AT HONOLULU RECENT WARMING TRENDS FAVOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST SEASONS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2003 EC 72.8 0.5 B5 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2003 EC 73.9 0.4 B3 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2003 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2003 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2003 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2003 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2003 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2003 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2003 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2004 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2004 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2004 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2004 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2003 EC 74.4 0.6 B4 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2003 EC 75.8 0.6 B2 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2003 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2003 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2003 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2003 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2003 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2003 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2003 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2004 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2004 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2003 A2 76.0 0.4 B4 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2003 A3 77.7 0.4 B2 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2003 A5 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2003 A5 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2003 A5 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2003 A5 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2003 A5 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2003 A3 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2003 A3 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2004 A2 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2004 A2 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2004 A2 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2004 A2 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2003 EC 74.4 0.4 B7 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2003 EC 75.9 0.4 B5 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2003 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2003 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2003 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2003 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2003 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2003 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2003 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2004 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2004 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2004 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES BELOW. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MARCH 20 2003 $$