PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST THU FEB 20 2003

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2003
                                                                               .
THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND ENSO-RELATED ATMOSPHERIC INDICES (SOI, 850-HPA 
ZONAL WIND INDEX) INDICATE MODERATE TO WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUING. 
THE EL NINO TELECONNECTIONS DEPEND ON ABNORMALLY STRONG CONVECTION ALONG 
THE EQUATOR FROM THE DATELINE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. WITH EASTERN 
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS CURRENTLY COOLER THAN IN A TYPICAL WARM EVENT... THE 
EASTERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE ASSOCIATED EXTRA-TROPICAL 
RESPONSE TO EL NINO MAY BE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.      

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON TREND ADJUSTED WARM PHASE ENSO 
(EL NINO) COMPOSITES OF PAST CASES DURING FMA. TRENDS FOR WARM ARE HUGE WEST 
OF THE ROCKIES. SOIL MOISTURE PLAYS ALREADY A ROLE AT LOW LATITUDES AND GIVEN 
WET INITIAL SOILS WE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR COLD TEMPERATURES IN 
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON ENSO COMPOSITES FOR FMA PLUS 
A FEW TREND CONSIDERATIONS. WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM RETURNED WE FEEL JUSTIFIED
TO MAINTAIN ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH.

FOR SOUTH COASTAL ALASKA THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IS CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND 
HENCE MILD AND RAINY. COASTAL SST ARE NEARLY 2 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL...THIS
ALSO SHOULD HELP TO GET ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURE. IN INLAND ALASKA TRENDS
ARE FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AT MANY LOCATIONS IN SPRING.
   

FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) WILL HENCEFORTH BE LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY MARCH 20 2003.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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