PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON D.C.
3 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 19 2002

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2002
                                                                               .
THE OVERALL SST AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICES (SOI, 850-HPA ZONAL WIND INDEX) 
INDICATE THAT AN EL NINO IS IN PROGRESS. ANOMALOUS CONVECTION APPEARS WELL 
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DATE LINE...READY TO FORCE THE MID LATITUDES AS SOON AS
THE SEASON ALLOWS SUCH INTERACTION. DURING THE COLD SEASON WE CERTAINLY DO
EXPECT PREDICTABLE IMPACTS FROM AN ENSO WARM EPISODE ON U.S. WEATHER AND
CLIMATE. OCTOBER IS JUST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE COLD SEASON. THE SKILL OF
TRADITIONAL TOOLS - CCA AND OCN - IS QUITE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS BASED ON CCA AND OCN. 
OCN AND CCA SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SMALL AREAS OF SOUTHERN 
AZ AND NM AND THE TIP OF FL. FOR THE REST OF THE NATION WE RESORT TO CL.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS BASED ON TRENDS - OCN - AND ENSO COMPOSITES.
INDICATIONS FOR DRY IN THE MID ATLANTIC ARE BASED ON TRENDS AND ENSO. THE 
TENDENCY FOR WETNESS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BOTH TRENDS AND OCN. FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE NATION THE INDICATIONS ARE WEAK - THUS A CL FORECAST.

INDICATIONS ARE WEAK FOR AK BOTH ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION - HENCE CL. 

FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START
OF THE VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY OCTOBER 17 2002.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.

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