PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THURSDAY AUGUST 15 2002 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2002 . . . . . . . . SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII AND ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE WARMING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC HAS PERSISTED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO CONDITIONS IN PLACE. NINO34 IS NEAR 0.9 C AS OF RECENT WEEKLY AVERAGES. OCN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE CCA POINT AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HONOLULU AND LIHUE. PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE WEAK. HENCE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST. FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO CL 76.4 0.5 CL 5.4 8.7 9.9 KAHULUI CL 79.2 0.6 CL 0.1 0.2 0.3 HONOLULU A5 81.4 0.5 CL 0.4 0.5 0.9 LIHUE A4 79.4 0.3 CL 1.4 1.8 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP-OCT-NOV 2002 TO SEP-OCT-NOV 2003 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE PACIFIC WARM EPIOSDE (EL NINO) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2002 AND INTO 2003. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS BASED ON AN AMALGAMATION OF OCN AND CCA - MAINLY POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT HONOLULU AND LIHUE - AND AN ENSO COMPOSITE COMPONENT FOR BELOW NORMAL AT ALL ISLANDS FROM NDJ THRU MJJ. THE PERSISTENCE COMPONENT IS SMALL SINCE THE SST ANOMALIES NEAR HI ARE VERY SMALL. ENSO-RELATED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION BASED ON COMPOSITES OF PAST WARM EPISODES IS RELIED UPON FOR ALL ISLANDS FROM OND TO MJJ. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2002 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2002 CL 74.2 0.4 B2 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2002 B2 72.8 0.4 B3 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2003 B3 72.0 0.4 B4 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2003 B4 71.8 0.4 B5 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2003 B4 72.1 0.4 B4 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2003 B4 72.8 0.5 B4 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2003 B4 73.9 0.4 B4 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2003 B3 75.0 0.4 B3 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2003 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2003 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2003 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2003 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2002 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 B2 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2002 B3 73.8 0.5 B3 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2003 B4 72.5 0.5 B4 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2003 B4 72.4 0.5 B4 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2003 B4 73.2 0.5 B4 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2003 B4 74.4 0.6 B4 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2003 B3 75.8 0.6 B3 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2003 B2 77.3 0.6 B2 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2003 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2003 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2003 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2003 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2002 A4 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2002 A2 77.3 0.5 B2 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 B3 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2003 B2 73.5 0.4 B4 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2003 B3 73.5 0.4 B4 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2003 B3 74.5 0.4 B4 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2003 B2 76.0 0.4 B3 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2003 CL 77.7 0.4 B2 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2003 CL 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2003 A3 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2003 A3 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2003 A3 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2003 CL 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2002 A3 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2002 CL 75.6 0.3 B2 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2002 B3 73.6 0.3 B3 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2003 B4 72.4 0.4 B4 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2003 B4 72.4 0.4 B4 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2003 B5 73.1 0.4 B4 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2003 B3 74.4 0.4 B3 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2003 B2 75.9 0.4 B2 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2003 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2003 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2003 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2003 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2002 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9 FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 19 2002. NNNN NNNN