PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUNE 13 2002 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2003 . . . . . . . . SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII INCREASED DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS AND ARE NOW NEAR +1C. THE WARMING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC HAS INCREASED - WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. STATISTICAL TOOLS AND THE NCEP COUPLED MODEL SHOW NO CLEAR PRECIPITATION SIGNALS SO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A3 76.0 0.5 CL 6.5 9.4 11.2 KAHULUI A3 78.9 0.6 CL 0.2 0.3 0.5 HONOLULU A4 80.8 0.5 CL 0.2 0.4 0.4 LIHUE A3 78.9 0.4 CL 1.3 1.8 2.2 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2002 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2003 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE PACIFIC WARM EPIOSDE (EL NINO) WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE REMAINDER OF 2002. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST TWO LEADS REFLECTS PRIMARILY CURRENT SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII. AFTER THE FIRST COUPLE OF LEADS THE ONLY USEABLE SIGNAL IS FROM RECENT WARMING TRENDS AT HONOLULU - FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE YEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE SUMMER MONTHS. SOME OF THE SEASONS BEGINNING NEXT FALL ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH PAST EL NINO EPISODES. CURRENT PREDICTIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK - AT LEAST - OR MORE LIKELY MODERATE EL NINO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF 2002 AND INTO 2003. THERE IS LITTLE RELIABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN ANY OF THE TOOLS AT ANY LEAD - BUT BY THE LONGER LEADS ENSO-RELATED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION BASED ON COMPOSITES OF PAST WARM EPISODES WAS INCLUDED. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2002 A3 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2002 A2 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2002 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2002 CL 74.2 0.4 B2 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2002 B2 72.8 0.4 B3 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2003 B3 72.0 0.4 B4 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2003 B4 71.8 0.4 B5 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2003 B4 72.1 0.4 B4 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2003 B4 72.8 0.5 B4 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2003 B4 73.9 0.4 B4 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2003 B3 75.0 0.4 B3 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2003 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2003 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2002 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2002 B3 75.9 0.5 B2 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2002 B4 73.8 0.5 B3 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2003 B4 72.5 0.5 B4 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2003 B4 72.4 0.5 B4 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2003 B4 73.2 0.5 B4 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2003 B4 74.4 0.6 B4 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2003 B3 75.8 0.6 B3 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2003 B2 77.3 0.6 B2 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2003 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2003 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2002 A5 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2002 A4 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2002 A3 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2002 CL 77.3 0.5 B2 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 B3 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2003 B2 73.5 0.4 B4 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2003 B3 73.5 0.4 B4 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2003 B3 74.5 0.4 B4 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2003 B2 76.0 0.4 B3 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2003 CL 77.7 0.4 B2 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2003 CL 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2003 A3 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2003 A5 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2002 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2002 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2002 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2002 B2 75.6 0.3 B2 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2002 B3 73.6 0.3 B3 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2003 B4 72.4 0.4 B4 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2003 B4 72.4 0.4 B4 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2003 B5 73.1 0.4 B4 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2003 B3 74.4 0.4 B3 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2003 B2 75.9 0.4 B2 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2003 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2003 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2003 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 FORECASTER: W. HIGGINS NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 18 2002. NNNN NNNN