PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EST THURSDAY JAN 17 2002 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2002 . . . . . . . . SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND ENSO CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL. THUS THERE ARE NO ENSO-RELATED INFLUENCES FORECAST FOR THE MONTH. STATISTICAL TOOLS AND THE NCEP COUPLED MODEL SHOW NO CLEAR PRECIPITATION SIGNALS SO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN. NEAR NORMAL SSTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE STATISTICAL TOOLS AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO N5 70.6 0.4 CL 3.4 6.0 9.7 KAHULUI N5 71.0 0.5 CL 1.3 2.1 3.1 HONOLULU N5 71.9 0.5 CL 1.0 1.7 2.6 LIHUE N3 71.3 0.7 CL 1.6 2.6 3.9 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB-MAR-APR 2002 TO FEB-MAR-APR 2003 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH APRIL...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A POSSIBLE RETURN OF THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO BEGINNING IN LATE SPRING 2002. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST LEAD REFLECTS CURRENT SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII PLUS A STRONG TREND SIGNAL AT HONOLULU. AT LONGER LEADS THE SIGNAL FROM RECENT WARMING TRENDS AT HONOLULU FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE YEAR BUT ESPECIALLY IN SUMMER MONTHS...BUT BELOW NORMAL SSTS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM ENSO PHASE SUGGEST THAT THE TRENDS AT HONOLULU MAY BE MODERATED AND OTHER STATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AUTUMN. THERE IS LITTLE RELIABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN ANY OF THE TOOLS AT ANY LEAD...BUT BY THE LATER LEADS ENSO-RELATED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION WAS INCLUDED. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2002 N3 72.1 0.4 CL 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2002 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2002 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2002 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2002 B3 74.2 0.4 B3 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2002 B3 72.8 0.4 B3 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2003 B4 72.0 0.4 B4 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2003 B4 71.8 0.4 B4 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2003 B4 72.1 0.4 B4 29.5 35.9 43.1 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2002 N3 73.2 0.5 CL 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.6 CL 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.6 CL 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2002 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2002 B3 77.8 0.5 B3 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2002 B3 75.9 0.5 B3 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2002 B4 73.8 0.5 B3 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2003 B4 72.5 0.5 B4 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2003 B4 72.4 0.5 B4 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2003 B4 73.2 0.5 B4 4.3 6.0 8.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2002 A3 74.5 0.4 CL 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2002 A4 76.0 0.4 CL 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2002 A5 77.7 0.4 CL 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2002 A5 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2002 A6 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2002 A5 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2002 A4 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2002 A3 79.6 0.5 B3 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2002 CL 77.3 0.5 B3 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 B3 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2003 CL 73.5 0.4 B4 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2003 CL 73.5 0.4 B4 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2003 CL 74.5 0.4 B4 3.4 4.6 6.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2002 N3 73.1 0.4 CL 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.4 CL 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2002 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2002 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2002 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2002 B3 77.7 0.3 B3 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2002 B3 75.6 0.3 B3 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2002 B4 73.6 0.3 B3 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2003 B4 72.4 0.4 B4 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2003 B4 72.4 0.4 B4 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2003 B5 73.1 0.4 B4 7.5 9.6 12.0 FORECASTER: R. MARTIN NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 14 2002. NNNN NNNN