PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON D.C.
3 PM EST THURSDAY JAN 17 2002

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2002
                                                                          .

EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 1.0 DEGREE C BELOW
NORMAL FROM ABOUT 140W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.  WARMER THAN NORMAL
SSTS PREDOMINATE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST 150W.  THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WHEN TAKEN AS A WHOLE REMAINS IN A NEUTRAL ENSO STATE
THIS MONTH...AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY.  HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT CURRENT ENSO NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS MAY EVOLVE INTO THE WARM PHASE BY LATER IN THE YEAR.

CCA...CMP...AND CAS TOOLS AGREE ON BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST...TEXAS...THE GULF COAST...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...
AND ALL OF FLORIDA.  THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE WEST COAST...WITH CMP INICATING BELOW
MEDIAN AND CAS INDICATING ABOVE MEDIAN WHILE CCA AND OCN ARE TENDING
TOWARD WETTER THAN NORMAL BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SKILL IN THAT AREA.

RECENT TRENDS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. ...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CCA.  THE CMP
DISAGREES AND FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...HOWEVER THIS WAS DISCOUNTED ON THE BASIS
OF THE FAILURE OF SIMILAR RECENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE CMP.  WEST
OF THE DIVIDE THE TOOLS SHOW LESS AGREEMENT...BUT WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
SKILL INDICATED EXCEPT FOR THE TREND FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  ENSEMBLE PREDICTION FOR THE 90 DAY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FEB-MARCH-APRIL FROM MANY DIFFERENT NUMERICAL
MODELS...RUN AT NCEP AND AT OTHER CENTERS FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION...SHOW A
PATTERN OF NEAR NORMAL TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER
48 STATES EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH IS THUS NOT
INCONSISTENT WITH THE CCA AND TREND TOOLS FOR FEBRUARY.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK STRONGLY RESEMBLES CCA AND TRENDS.
 
FORECASTER: R. MARTIN
  
NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START
OF THE VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY 
FEBRUARY 14 2002.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.