PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EST THURSDAY DEC 13 2001 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAN 2002 . . . . . . . . SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND ENSO CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL. THUS THERE ARE NO ENSO-RELATED INFLUENCES FORECAST FOR THE MONTH. STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW NO CLEAR SIGNALS AND THERE ARE CONTRADICTORY RESULTS FROM THE NUMERICAL MODELS. THE NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATES ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITA- TION - BUT OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION - AS DO STATISTICAL TOOLS - SO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN. NEAR NORMAL SSTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO N5 71.6 0.5 CL 3.5 7.5 11.0 KAHULUI N3 71.9 0.6 CL 1.3 2.2 2.9 HONOLULU N3 72.9 0.6 CL 0.7 1.4 3.5 LIHUE N5 71.7 0.6 CL 1.4 3.1 4.8 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAN-FEB-MAR 2002 TO JAN-FEB-MAR 2003 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH APRIL - WITH A SUGGESTION OF A RETURN TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC BY LATE SPRING 2002. ENSO-RELATED PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE SIGNALS ARE WEAK SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES EXPECTED FOR THIS OUTLOOK. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST TWO LEADS REFLECT CURRENT SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII. AT LONGER LEADS THE ONLY SIGNAL IS FROM RECENT WARMING TRENDS AT HONOLULU WHICH FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE YEAR - BUT ESPECIALLY IN SUMMER MONTHS. THERE IS LITTLE SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY COHERENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN ANY OF THE TOOLS AT ANY OF THE LEADS - SO CL IS GIVEN THROUGHOUT. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A4 MEANS A 4% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2002 N3 71.8 0.4 CL 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.4 CL 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2002 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2002 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2002 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2002 CL 74.2 0.4 CL 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2002 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2003 CL 72.0 0.4 CL 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2003 CL 71.8 0.4 CL 23.9 30.9 39.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2002 N4 72.4 0.5 CL 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2002 N2 73.2 0.5 CL 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.6 CL 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.6 CL 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2002 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2002 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2002 CL 73.8 0.5 CL 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2003 CL 72.5 0.5 CL 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2003 CL 72.4 0.5 CL 6.0 8.1 10.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2002 N3 73.5 0.4 CL 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2002 CL 74.5 0.4 CL 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2002 A4 76.0 0.4 CL 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2002 A5 77.7 0.4 CL 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2002 A5 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2002 A7 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2002 A7 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2002 A5 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2002 A4 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2002 A3 77.3 0.5 CL 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2003 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2003 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 4.1 5.8 8.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2002 CL 73.1 0.4 CL 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.4 CL 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2002 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2002 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2002 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2002 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2002 CL 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2002 CL 73.6 0.3 CL 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2003 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2003 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.0 10.8 14.1 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JANUARY 17 2002. NNNN NNNN