PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY OCT 18 2001

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2001

ON THE AVERAGE... EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND 
THE ANOMALY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH NOVEMBER WITH 
POSITIVE ANOMALIES WEST OF 140W AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES TO THE EAST... SO NO 
ENSO-RELATED TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS 
FORECAST PERIOD.
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THE RESULTING PATTERN FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER IS SIMILAR TO THE OND SEASONAL 
FORECAST ISSUED LAST MONTH.  THE ONLY SIGNALS - AND THEY ARE WEAK - FOR THE 
NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE FORECAST COME FROM OCN OR LONG TERM TREND.  THE AREA OF 
WARMTH IN THE SOUTHWEST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST... MAINLY OVER TEXAS... AND 
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS FOR TROUGHS TO DIG MORE INTO THE FAR 
SOUTHWEST AND DEFEAT THE LONG TERM WARMING TREND THERE... EXPECIALLY FOR A 
PERIOD AS SHORT AS A MONTH.  THE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES IS 
FROM OCN AS WELL AS AN ENSEMBLE OF COUPLED MODELS... AND IS ALSO CONSISTENT 
WITH COMPOSITES OF PAST OBSERVED MONTHLY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AT 
THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.  THE SMALL AREA OF WARMTH 
INDICATED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA COMES FROM OCN AND IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT 
TRENDS FOR RIDGING TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THERE WERE NOT 
ANY RELAIBLE SIGNALS TO SPECIFY A TEMPERATURE ANOMALY OVER ALASKA... AND THIS 
IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT MARKED INTRAMONTHLY VARIABILITY THERE.

IT MIGHT BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A STRONG MADDEN-JULIAN (MJO) WAVE CURRENTLY 
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE DATELINE... BUT THE TIMING OF 
THIS FEATURE IS SUCH AS TO NOT CENTER ANY ONE PHASE IN THE CALENDAR MONTH AS 
FAR AS EFFECTS ON NORTH AMERICA... SO ITS USEFULNESS IS LIMITED TO EXPECTING 
A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE UPCOMING MONTH.

OCN SHOWS TWO FAIRLY GOOD-SIZED AREAS WITH RELIABLE SIGNALS FOR THE NOVEMBER 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST... WITH WET CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 
AND ABNORMALLY DRY OVER PART OF THE FAR WEST CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
CALIFORRNIA.  THE LATTER AREA IS ALSO INDICATED BY AN ENSEMBLE OF COUPLED 
MOELS.  ALTHOUGH NOT PREDICTED BY ANY ADDITIONAL TOOLS... THE AREA OF WET 
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS CONSISTENT IN A CORRELATION SENSE WITH 
THE FORECAST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IN THE SAME AREA.  LACK OF ANY 
RELIABLE SIGNALS FROM ANY OF THE TOOLS AND EXPECTED VARIABILITY OF REGIMES 
PRECLUDES ANY FORECAST OTHER THAN CL FOR ALASKA. 


NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15 2001.

NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE 
MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.

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