PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY AUG 16 2001

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2001

EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND ANOMALIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH SEPTEMBER SO NO ENSO-RELATED
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR THE SEPTEMBER FORECAST COME FROM THE CCA AND LONG
TERM TREND.  THE COUPLED MODEL PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION.  TREND AND CCA CALL FOR THE WARMEST ANOMALIES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US AND IN FLORIDA - EVEN ODDS IN ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US.  THE COUPLED MODEL PREDICTS COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE ALL OTHER TOOLS ARE WARM.  COUPLED MODEL ALSO PREDICTS
ABNORMAL WARMTH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE US.

OCN PREDICTS EXTRA WETNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST - NEW ENGLAND - THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA.  THIS IS AT ODDS WITH
THE COUPLED MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE BIASED TOWARD DRYNESS OVER MUCH OF THE US
AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND THE GREAT PLAINS.  CCA AND OCN BOTH INDICATE A
VERY WEAK DRY SIGNAL IN THE NORTHWESTERN US BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
FORECAST OF DRY.

THE STRONG TREND FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE FAVORED TOOLS MAKES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CLEAR
FORECAST FOR THAT REGION.  OCN AND SOIL MOISTURE COMBINE TO GIVE ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 13 2001.

NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE 
MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.

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