PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUL 12 2001 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUG 2001 . . . . . . . . SSTS ARE WITHIN 0.5 DEGREES C OF AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII. THE SST ANOMALIES ARE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN RECENT WEEKS WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN AUGUST. THE STATISTICAL FORECASTS FROM THE CCA ARE FOR BELOW NORMAL AT HILO AND KAHULUI WHILE CALLING FOR NEAR NORMAL AT HONOLULU AND ABOVE NORMAL AT LIHUE. THE SMLR TOOL INDICATES CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT KAHULUI WITH ABOVE NORMAL AT THE OTHER THREE STATIONS - AS DOES OCN. THE COUPLED MODEL HAS NO TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INDICATED. CCA INDICATES BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HILO AND CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE - WHILE OCN CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF NEAR NORMAL AT HAHULUI AND CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABIL- ITIES ELSEWHERE. THE COUPLED MODEL SUPPORTS THE CCA AT HILO. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO CL 76.4 0.4 B5 6.3 8.5 11.2 KAHULUI N5 79.5 0.5 N5 0.4 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU A5 81.6 0.5 CL 0.1 0.3 0.5 LIHUE A5 79.6 0.3 CL 1.5 1.7 2.1 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUG-SEP-OCT 2001 TO AUG-SEP-OCT 2002 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - WITH A SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC BY WINTER 2001-2002. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO ENSO-RELATED PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THIS OUTLOOK. THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT THE CURRENT SSTS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS AND IS SUPPORTED BY CCA. MOST TOOLS INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HONOLULU FOR MANY OF THE FORECAST LEADS - ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ANOMALIES CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO URBAN WARMING - SINCE THE FORECAST THERE IS BASED ON HONOLULU AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY CCA FOR ABOVE MEDIAN TEMPERATURES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS EXCEPT HILO FOR THE LATE FALL AND EARLY WINTER - BUT THIS RECEIVES LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER TOOLS. THERE IS LITTLE SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY COHERENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE TOOLS. OCN FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATIO AMOUNTS AT KAHULUI AT ALL LEADS BUT GETS NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER TOOLS. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2001 N3 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2001 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2001 CL 74.2 0.4 CL 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2001 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.4 CL 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.4 CL 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.4 CL 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2002 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2002 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2001 N5 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2001 N5 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2001 CL 73.8 0.5 CL 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2002 CL 72.5 0.5 CL 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.5 CL 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2002 CL 73.2 0.5 CL 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.6 CL 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.6 CL 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2002 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2001 A5 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2001 A5 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2001 A5 77.3 0.5 CL 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2001 A3 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2002 CL 74.5 0.4 CL 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2002 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2002 CL 77.7 0.4 CL 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2002 CL 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2002 A5 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2002 A3 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2002 A3 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2001 A5 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2001 A2 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2001 CL 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2001 CL 73.6 0.3 CL 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2002 CL 73.1 0.4 CL 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.4 CL 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2002 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2002 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2002 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY AUGUST 16 2001. NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 OUTLOOK RELEASE. NNNN NNNN