PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUL 12 2001

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUGUST 2001
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THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE AUGUST FORECAST WITH THE CCA AND LONG
TERM TREND GIVING A TEMPERATURE PATTERN RATHER LIKE THAT FORECASTED FOR JULY
WHILE THE COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION WHERE THE TREND AND CCA CALL FOR THE WARMEST ANOMALIES.
CCA AND THE COUPLED MODEL BOTH GIVE INDICATIONS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR ALASKA BUT IN DIFFERENT PLACES - WITH THE CCA CALLING FOR BELOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND ALEUTIANS WHILE THE COUPLED MODEL GIVES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.  THE SOIL MOISTURE TOOL FORECASTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE SAME PLACES AS CCA AND THE TREND BUT FORECASTS
BELOW NORMAL FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
EASTWARD TO THE UPPER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.
THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND ANOMALIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH AUGUST SO THERE ARE NO ENSO-RELATED
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
MAIN FACTORS INFLUENCING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE THE LONG TERM TRENDS -
AS INDICATED BY THE OCN TOOL - FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FLORIDA
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO TEXAS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  OCN
SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.  HOWEVER THIS
OCN SIGNAL DOES NOT OVERLAP THE CORE OF THE BELOW NORMAL FORCAST BY THE SOIL
MOISTURE TOOL AND IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTINGUISH ITSELF FROM A CLIMA-
TOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION FOR A PERIOD AS SHORT AS AUGUST ALONE.

THE FORECAST FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS COMPOUNDED BY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS
THAT REDUCE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CCA - THE
COUPLED MODEL - AND SOIL MOISTURE TOOL FOR THE REGION AS WELL. 

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY AUGUST 16 2001.

NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE 
MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.

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