PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUN 14 2001 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2001 . . . . . . . . SSTS ARE WITHIN 0.5 DEGREES C OF AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII. THE SST ANOMALIES ARE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE POSITIVE IN RECENT WEEKS - WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN JULY FROM OAHU NORTHWESTWARD. THE STATISTICAL FORECASTS FROM BOTH CCA AND SMLR INDICATE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HILO. CCA INDICATES BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HILO - AND CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B10 75.8 0.5 B5 6.7 8.7 11.1 KAHULUI B5 78.6 0.5 CL 0.2 0.2 0.4 HONOLULU A8 80.5 0.5 CL 0.2 0.4 0.7 LIHUE A5 78.9 0.4 CL 1.4 1.9 2.4 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2001 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2002 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - WITH A SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A RETURN TO MODEST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SUMMER 2002. THUS - THERE WILL BE NO ENSO-RELATED PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THIS OUTLOOK. THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT THE CURRENT SSTS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS AND IS SUPPORTED BY CCA. ALL TOOLS INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HONOLULU FOR MANY OF THE FORECAST LEADS - ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ANOMALIES CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO URBAN WARMING - SINCE THE FORECAST THERE IS BASED ON HONOLULU AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY OCN FOR ABOVE MEDIAN TEMPERATURES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS EXCEPT HILO FOR THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER. THE ONLY SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT HILO FOR JAS 2001 BASED ON CCA. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2001 B5 76.1 0.4 B5 22.0 26.2 30.9 ASO 2001 N5 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3 SON 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4 OND 2001 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7 NDJ 2001 CL 72.7 0.4 CL 27.8 34.0 42.2 DJF 2002 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1 JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1 FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7 MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1 AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4 MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0 JJA 2002 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5 JAS 2002 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2001 N5 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4 ASO 2001 N2 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4 SON 2001 A5 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8 OND 2001 A5 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1 NDJ 2001 A3 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4 DJF 2002 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5 JFM 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1 FMA 2002 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5 MAM 2002 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1 AMJ 2002 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1 MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6 JJA 2002 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3 JAS 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2001 A10 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1 ASO 2001 A10 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0 SON 2001 A8 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9 OND 2001 A7 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4 NDJ 2001 A5 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4 DJF 2002 A3 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9 JFM 2002 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 FMA 2002 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8 MAM 2002 A3 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5 AMJ 2002 A5 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6 MJJ 2002 A4 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5 JJA 2002 A4 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8 JAS 2002 A4 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2001 A5 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2 JAS 2001 A5 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0 ASO 2001 A4 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7 SON 2001 A3 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8 OND 2001 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1 NDJ 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7 DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6 JFM 2002 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3 FMA 2002 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6 MAM 2002 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3 AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5 MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0 JJA 2002 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 12 2001. NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 OUTLOOK RELEASE. NNNN NNNN