PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUN 14 2001

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2001
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THERE ARE ONLY WEAK SIGNALS INDICATED FOR THE JULY FORECAST - MOSTLY DUE TO 
LONG TERM TRENDS.  THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE NEAR NORMAL
AND ANOMALIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH JULY SO THERE ARE NO
ENSO-RELATED TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST 
PERIOD.  THE MAIN FACTORS INFLUENCING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE THE LONG TERM 
TRENDS - AS INDICATED BY THE OCN TOOL - FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
FLORIDA - SOUTH TEXAS - AND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  OCN SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS - AS REFLECTED IN THE 90-DAY SEASONAL 
OUTLOOK FOR JAS 2001.  HOWEVER THE SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTINGUISH 
ITSELF FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION FOR A PERIOD AS SHORT AS JULY ALONE.  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH CCA AND SMLR FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA 
AND THE PANHANDLE.  THE SMLR PREDICTORS SUGGEST THIS IS RELATED TO COOLER THAN 
NORMAL SSTS IN THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.   

THE FORECAST FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS COMPOUNDED BY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS 
THAT REDUCE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY.  CCA INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS FOR 
NORTHERN IDAHO EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MONTANA.  A TOOL BASED ON A CONSTRUCTED 
ANALOG OF SOIL MOISTURE (CAS) INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS WELL.  
THERE IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITAION IN PORTIONS OF THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM BOTH OCN AND THE CAS TOOLS.  

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY JULY 12 2001.

NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE 
MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.

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