PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THURSDAY MAY 17 2001 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2001 . . . . . . . . SSTS NEAR HAWAII HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR THE BIG-ISLAND WHERE THEY REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 0.5C BELOW NORMAL. THE LARGE-SCALE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH WEAK COLD EPISODE CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE MOST RECENT ANALYSES AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD EPISODE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEASON - WITH NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE SUMMER OF 2001. THIS FORECAST PERSISTS ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWESTERN HAWAII AND ANTICIPATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM OCN AND CCA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER NORTHWESTERN HAWAII FROM OCN. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO CL 75.2 0.5 CL 4.6 5.7 7.0 KAHULUI N3 77.4 0.6 N4 0.0 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU A5 79.4 0.5 B4 0.1 0.3 0.5 LIHUE A2 77.8 0.4 B4 1.1 1.5 1.9 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN-JUL-AUG 2001 TO JUN-JUL-AUG 2002 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN FROM THE CURRENT WEAK COLD EPISODE CONDITIONS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SOMETIME DURING THE SUMMER SEASON. ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES PREDICTED AT THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT PERSISTENCE OF RECENTLY OBSERVED WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL SST. THE CL FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS REFLECTS THE RECENT NEAR NORMAL OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SST. ENSO SHOULD BECOME APPROXIMATELY NEUTRAL DURING SUMMER 2001 AND THE TOOLS GIVE MOSTLY WEAK FORECASTS - EXCEPT FOR PERSISTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HONOLULU. CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE THUS GIVEN FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE FALL 2001 AND AT ALL LOCATIONS PAST THEN. INDICATIONS FROM THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE MOSTLY VERY WEAK TO ABSENT. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5 JAS 2001 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9 ASO 2001 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3 SON 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4 OND 2001 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7 NDJ 2001 CL 72.7 0.4 CL 27.8 34.0 42.2 DJF 2002 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1 JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1 FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7 MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1 AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4 MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0 JJA 2002 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2001 N3 78.5 0.5 N3 0.6 0.9 1.3 JAS 2001 N3 78.9 0.5 N3 0.8 1.1 1.4 ASO 2001 N2 78.6 0.5 N2 1.2 1.7 2.4 SON 2001 N2 77.4 0.5 N2 2.4 3.4 4.8 OND 2001 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1 NDJ 2001 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4 DJF 2002 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5 JFM 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1 FMA 2002 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5 MAM 2002 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1 AMJ 2002 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1 MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6 JJA 2002 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2001 A5 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8 JAS 2001 A4 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1 ASO 2001 A4 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0 SON 2001 A3 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9 OND 2001 A2 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4 NDJ 2001 A2 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4 DJF 2002 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9 JFM 2002 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 FMA 2002 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8 MAM 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5 AMJ 2002 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6 MJJ 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5 JJA 2002 CL 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2 JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0 ASO 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7 SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8 OND 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1 NDJ 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7 DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6 JFM 2002 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3 FMA 2002 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6 MAM 2002 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3 AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5 MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0 JJA 2002 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JUNE 14 2001. NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE BEEN IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH TODAYS FORECAST RELEASE. NNNN NNNN