PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY MAY 17 2001

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2001
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
THE LARGE-SCALE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS REMAIN CONSISTENT 
WITH WEAK COLD EPISODE CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.  THE MOST RECENT 
ANALYSES AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD 
EPISODE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEASON - WITH NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE SUMMER OF 2001.  COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL 
PACIFIC DURING JUNE 2001 - HOWEVER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS RELATIVELY
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CLIMATE OF THE MAINLAND U.S.  THE FOLLOWING TOOLS WERE 
CONSIDERED FOR THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK - THE OCN - THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG FOR SOIL
MOISTURE (CAS) - AND THE NCEP COUPLED MODEL MONTHLY FORECASTS.  ON THE MONTHLY 
TIME SCALE NONE OF THESE TOOLS HAVE VERY HIGH SKILL.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD 
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES TO FLORIDA - AND THEN NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE MIDATLANTIC STATES.  WARMER-THAN-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PREDICTED IN THE NORTHWEST.  THE TOOLS ARE IN SOME 
AGREEMENT IN THE NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWEST BUT OTHERWISE SHOW MIXED SIGNALS.  
THE CAS TOOL AGREED WITH OTHER INDICATIONS FOR WARMTH IN THE SOUTHEAST - WHICH 
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LONG TERM DRYNESS IN MUCH OF THAT REGION.  

THE CAS AND OCN TOOLS FAVOR COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.  CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES WERE GIVEN OVER MOST OF THE 
REMAINING NORTHERN ONE-HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WHERE INDICATIONS FROM THE 
VARIOUS TOOLS WERE WEAK.  TOOLS ALSO GAVE MIXED SIGNALS FOR SOUTHERN AND 
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALASKA - WITH OCN PREDICTING ABOVE NORMAL - 
AND WITH CCA PREDICTING BELOW NORMAL.  GIVEN THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA - ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS AND 
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE ASSIGNED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION - WHICH 
ALSO AGREED WITH INDICATIONS FROM OCN.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST - CONSISTENT WITH INDICATIONS FROM CAS AND WITH THE FORECAST
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM FLORIDA TO THE MIDATLANTIC.  CAS ALSO SUGGESTS
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 
48 STATES AND MOST OF ALASKA HAD WEAK OR MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE TOOLS - EXCEPT 
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA - WHICH WAS 
SUPPORTED BY OCN.  


NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY JUNE 14 2001.

NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE BEEN IMPLEMENTED BEGINNING WITH
TODAYS FORECAST RELEASE.

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