PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EST THURSDAY MARCH 15 2001 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2001 . . . . . . . . SSTS NEAR HAWAII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LAST MONTH AND A HALF - SST ANOMALIES BEING AROUND -0.25 TO -0.5 DEGREES C IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII ON A COARSE GLOBAL SST ANALYSIS PRODUCED BY NCEP. MEANWHILE LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HANG ON IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH SOME WEAKENING DURING THE LAST MONTH. THIS FORECAST PERSISTS WARM AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST AND ANTICIPATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO CL 72.7 0.5 CL 9.5 13.1 17.5 KAHULUI CL 74.1 0.6 CL 0.3 0.8 1.7 HONOLULU A5 75.8 0.5 CL 0.5 0.9 1.6 LIHUE A5 74.0 0.6 CL 2.0 2.9 4.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR-MAY-JUN 2001 TO APR-MAY-JUN 2002 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN FROM THE CURRENTLY MODEST COLD CONDITIONS TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE AMJ 2001 SEASON. ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES PREDICTED AT THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST LEAD REFLECTS PERSISTENCE OF RECENTLY OBSERVED WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL SST. THE CL FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS REFLECTS THE RECENT NEAR NORMAL OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL SST. ENSO SHOULD BE NEUTRAL BY LATE SPRING 2001 AND WITH THE TOOLS PRODUCING WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY FORECASTS - CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN FOR TEMPERATURE AT ALL LOCATIONS PAST MAM 2001. INDICATIONS FROM THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE VERY WEAK TO ABSENT. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2001 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4 MJJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0 JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5 JAS 2001 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9 ASO 2001 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3 SON 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4 OND 2001 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7 NDJ 2001 CL 72.7 0.4 CL 27.8 34.0 42.2 DJF 2002 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1 JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1 FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7 MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1 AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2001 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1 MJJ 2001 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6 JJA 2001 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3 JAS 2001 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4 ASO 2001 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4 SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8 OND 2001 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1 NDJ 2001 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4 DJF 2002 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5 JFM 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1 FMA 2002 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5 MAM 2002 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1 AMJ 2002 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2001 A5 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6 MJJ 2001 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5 JJA 2001 CL 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8 JAS 2001 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1 ASO 2001 CL 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0 SON 2001 CL 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9 OND 2001 CL 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4 NDJ 2001 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4 DJF 2002 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9 JFM 2002 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 FMA 2002 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8 MAM 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5 AMJ 2002 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2001 A5 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5 MJJ 2001 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0 JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2 JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0 ASO 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7 SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8 OND 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1 NDJ 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7 DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6 JFM 2002 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3 FMA 2002 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6 MAM 2002 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3 AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY APRIL 12 2001. NNNN NNNN