PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY MARCH 15 2001

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2001
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EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND THE CIRCULATION IN THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC BASIN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS FOUND DURING OF 
COLD (LA NINA) EPISODES. RECENT ANALYSES AND BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEASON.
HOWEVER COOLER THAN AVERAGE SSTS WILL PERSIST IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION THROUGH
APRIL 2001. WE CONSIDERED THE FOLLOWING TOOLS: THE COUPLED MODEL AT T42 AND AT 
T62 RESOLUTION - THE CCA - THE OCN - COLD ENSO COMPOSITES AND CONSTRUCTED 
ANALOGUE FOR SOIL MOISTURE.  ON THE MONTHLY TIME SCALE NONE OF THESE TOOLS HAVE 
VERY HIGH SKILL.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO
EASTERN TEXAS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF FLORIDA. THE TOOLS ARE IN
SOME AGREEMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT OTHERWISE SHOW MIXED SIGNALS. SOME TOOLS
FAVOR COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NW WHILE OCN INDICATES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THAT REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONSISTENT INDICATIONS
WE OPTED FOR CL FOR THAT REGION AS WELL AS MOST OF THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
CONTIGUOUS US WHERE INDICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS TOOLS WERE VERY WEAK. THE
TOOLS ALSO GAVE MIXED SIGNALS FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALASKA. GIVEN
THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE ABOVE CATEGORY.

PRECIPITATION REFLECTS SOME RESIDUAL COLD EPISODE FEATURES WHICH CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY SPRING. THUS WE INCLUDED INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONTIGUOUS US AND ALASKA THE TOOLS ALL GAVE WEAK AND MIXED SIGNALS. THUS 
WE OPTED FOR CL IN THOSE REGIONS. 

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY APRIL 12 2001.

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