PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 21 - 25 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MOST MODELS WHILE TROUGH IS PLACED NEAR EAST COAST BY THE 06Z OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 500 MB ANOMALIES ARE QUITE WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL BLEND INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE PART OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ALASKA...THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...THE GREAT LAKES... AND THE NORTHEAST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER OTHER PARTS OF U.S. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST... THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST UNDER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE DUE TO POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THERE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST OF THE TOOLS, BUT WEAK 500MB ANOMALY FIELD. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL FORECASTS, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 29 2008: FOR WEEK 2, THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL BLEND INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR NEW ENGLAND AND WEST COAST WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO WEAK 500MB ANOMALY FIELD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. FORECASTER: HE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18 NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800924 - 19520929 - 19930924 - 19670921 - 19910923 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800924 - 19930925 - 19740913 - 19700915 - 19740926 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 21 - 25, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 29, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$