PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 15 - 19 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE DEPICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WHILE A RIDGE IS PROGGED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO DEPICT A TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ALTHOUGH SPREAD IS VERY HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF-BASED AND CANADIAN-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FAVORED IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS: 1) SUPERIOR 500-HPA ANOMALY CORRELATIONS DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS, 2) BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN IT AND ITS CORRESPONDING OPERATIONAL RUN RELATIVE TO THE GFS AND 3) BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE HANDLING OF HURRICANE IKE. THIS BLEND FEATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS. WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE REMNANTS OF IKE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM, GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FOR ALASKA, WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE OVER ALASKA, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ITSELF. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 55 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 17 - 23 2008: FOR WEEK 2, THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TROUGHS ARE DEPICTED NEAR WESTERN ALASKA AND EASTERN CANADA WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN. A TROUGH IS ALSO DEPICTED NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALTHOUGH SPREAD IS VERY HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE. IN GENERAL, THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS THE MOST ZONAL OF ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. DUE TO GENERALLY SUPERIOR SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FAVORED IN TODAYS WEEK 2 OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND. THIS BLEND CHART FEATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CORRESPONDING TO A FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST. CONVERSELY, DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST UNDERNEATH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE NEAR THE MEAN POSITION OF THE 500-HPA JET. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE MEAN STORM TRACK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 65 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST AND THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18 NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19710917 - 19720902 - 19930829 - 19650915 - 19650923 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19720902 - 19650915 - 19930829 - 19710917 - 19570910 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 15 - 19, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 17 - 23, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS B A PENN N N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$