PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 11 - 15 2008 TODAYS MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION. THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN U.S., AVERAGING IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. HURRICANE IKE COMPLICATES MATTERS FURTHER WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK PLACING THE STORM IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. THE TRACK OF IKE IS INFLUENCED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING THE EASTERN TROUGH RECURVING THE STORM TO A GREATER EXTENT THAN MEMBERS WITH THE TROUGH IN THE WEST. THIS STORM REQUIRES CLOSE WATCHING AND COULD BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AFTER PASSING FLORIDA PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ENHANCES CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE NEAR AN ENHANCED PACIFIC STORM TRACK. THE WESTERN RIDGE FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND MOST OF THE WEST COAST IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC JET, ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS SUGGESTED BY SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIMINISH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA UNDER AN EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURES EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 13 - 19 2008: THE PREDICTED 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN SHOWS A PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION FROM CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN U.S. BETWEEN THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW, HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE HIGH AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MAY BE ENHANCED WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IKE. MANY TOOLS SUGGEST ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS QUITE LOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ALTHOUGH THIS DEPENDS TO SOME EXTENT ON THE STRENGTH OF EXPECTED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN PARTS OF ALASKAS SOUTH COAST AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURES EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATION FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST, AND THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18 NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810904 - 19820913 - 19920822 - 19910914 - 19930826 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810903 - 19800822 - 19960907 - 19870815 - 19920822 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 15, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 13 - 19, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$