PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 09 - 13 2008 THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION. MOST MODELS PREDICT A FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ON THE DETAILS OF THE FLOW PATTERN. AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WHEN COMPARED TO RUNS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WHICH COULD INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EXPECTS TROPICAL STORM IKE TO DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS BY DAY 5, WITH AN UNCERTIAN TRACK AFTER THAT. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITHIN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE SURE WHERE. THIS STORM REQUIRES CLOSE WATCHING AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED BY ANALOGS. WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE NEAR AN ENHANCED PACIFIC STORM TRACK, AND THIS STORM TRACK MAY MAKE BRING FRONTAL SYSTEMS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO INFLUENCE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PREDICTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST IS ELEVATED DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM IKE FINDING ITS WAY INTO FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE IN THE ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE EAST IS LOW IN VIEW OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF IKE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND MOST OF THE WEST COAST IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC JET. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA UNDER AN EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONS AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IKE. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2008: THE PREDICTED 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED OVER ALASKA. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS WITHIN THIS PERIOD ARE THE SAME AS DISCUSSED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, INCLUDING THE UNCERTAINTIES INTRODUCED INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN U.S. DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IKE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONS AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IKE. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATION FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST, AND THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18 NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810903 - 19870814 - 19960907 - 19680916 - 19610902 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810903 - 19680916 - 19800822 - 19760908 - 19870814 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$