PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 11 - 15 2008 TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALL AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. TODAYS ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLE BRINGS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THAN THE LAST FOUR CYCLES OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE, SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AVAILABLE FOR YESTERDAYS FORECAST, WHILE TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PLACES THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FURTHER EAST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES. ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, HOWEVER 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN THE RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. UNDER BELOW NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CONUS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED STRONG NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN GREAT PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST PROBABLE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE FRONT IN THIS REGION. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TIED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 19 2008: TODAYS GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE LAST FOUR CYCLES MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL BLEND INDICATE A RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CENTERING THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN FORECAST FOR THE MONSOON REGION AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. AREAS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL JET. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE TROUGH. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. FORECASTER: COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540725 - 19620716 - 19860730 - 19690801 - 19540730 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540724 - 19620715 - 19690801 - 19860730 - 19930811 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 11 - 15, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 19, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$