PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 10 - 14 2008 TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALL AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGHS AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN THE LAST FOUR GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS IN COMPARISON HAVE A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS THERE. THE ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLE BRINGS THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE HAS A SLIGHTLY LESS SHALLOW TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. OVERALL THERE ARE ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST PROBABLE FOR WEST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST, FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG MONSOON EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE FRONT. PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2008: THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE LAST FOUR CYCLES. GENERALLY THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FORECASTED FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD BRINGING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS. FORECASTER: COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540724 - 19620715 - 19690801 - 19690727 - 19860730 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540724 - 19620714 - 19690801 - 19570728 - 19690727 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$