PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 06 - 10 2008 TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THEIR PREDICTIONS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE VICINITY OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SMALLER, YET STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE HEIGHT PROGS THAT RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH JUST A GLANCING INSPECTION OF THE MAPS. MOST SOLUTIONS DEPICT A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND THE ADJOINING GULF OF ALASKA, WITH THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE, PREDICTING AN INTENSE CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CLEARLY SHOWS TWO SEPARATE STREAMS AT THESE HIGHER LATITUDES, WITH AN ARCTIC JET ORIENTED ZONALLY OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, AND A POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN CONUS, THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS GENERALLY FAVOR RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE 0Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF POSITIONS THIS FEATURE FURTHER WEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN ADDITION, YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ANTICIPATES AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHEREAS THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS HAS IT PROGRESSING SLOWER, AND FORECASTS IT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. IN THE EAST, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH, WITH ONE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN 65W AND 70W, AND A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ARE THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVORING A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, BECAUSE OF THE MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS NOTED ABOVE. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL. RECENTLY OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED, AS WELL AS COASTAL OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON 12Z GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION AND IMPLIED STORM TRACKS. RECENTLY OBSERVED RAINFALL PATTERNS ACROSS THE CONUS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2008: THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 500-MB HEIGHT PROG INDICATES NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF 30 TO 60 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BUT ELSEWHERE THE PREDICTED ANOMALIES ARE VERY SMALL. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG ALSO DEPICTS A TROUGH OVER ALASKA. LOWERING 500-MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH RISING HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BERING SEACOAST. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS, THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC 6Z GFS RUN SEEMS TO BE OVERLY AMPLIFIED, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT FLATTER PATTERN THAN THE OTHER MODELS OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON 12Z GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION AND IMPLIED STORM TRACKS. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19580806 - 19690814 - 19630720 - 19570805 - 19800801 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690813 - 19580806 - 19800731 - 19910804 - 19700809 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$