PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2008 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THE OVERALL CIRCULATIONS PATTERN MAY START TO UNDERGO SOME CHANGES. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TROUGHS PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA/GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND ARE QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIR CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH TODAYS GFS-BASED FORECASTS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE MOST RECENT ECMWF OPERATIONAL PROGS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN, SOUTHERN, AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS, AND MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA SHOULD CAUSE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. THE EASTERN TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM VARIOUS ENSEMBLES, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2008: THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE MAJOR CIRCULATION FEATURES MAY UNDERGO A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION BETWEEN THE 6-10 DAY AND WEEK 2 PERIODS. AS WAS TRUE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND ARE QUIKCER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY. HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE, THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHRINKS IN AREAL SIZE DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS A DRIER PATTERN DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS MODEL RUNS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640705 - 19800730 - 19910729 - 19690728 - 19700808 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800731 - 19640705 - 19910731 - 19690728 - 19950806 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS N N PENN A B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$