PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2008 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TROUGHS PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA/GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MOST RECENT SOLUTIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA SHOULD CAUSE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE EASTERN TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE MONSOONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, TELECONNECTIONS ON NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 38N 74W AND AT 60N 133W, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, TELECONNECTIONS ON NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 38N 74W AND AT 60N 133W, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2008: THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MOST OF ALASKA WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXPANDS EASTWARD DURING WEEK 2, AND THE NORTHEAST TRANSITIONS FROM ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND FORECAST. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800731 - 19910801 - 19640704 - 19580805 - 19690727 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800731 - 19910731 - 19690727 - 19580804 - 19640704 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$