PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 20 - 24 2008 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED LARGE-SCALE FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST. MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS MAINLY CENTERED ON THE EASTERN TROUGH, WITH SOME MODELS PREDICTING A SHARPER TROUGH THAN OTHERS. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CONUS ARE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND AN EXPECTED ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON. TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, SUPPORTED MAINLY BY THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: OPERATIONAL ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 28 2008: THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN FORECAST. THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA IS DEEPER FOR WEEK 2 THAN IT IS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MAY BUILD EASTWARD... SO TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR THE 8-14 PERIOD THAN THE 6-10 DAY MEAN... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS PREDICTION IS NOT HIGH. THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670703 - 19840704 - 19800728 - 19770629 - 19840709 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670701 - 19840703 - 19770629 - 19810623 - 19800727 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 24, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 28, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$