PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 13 - 17 2008 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COASTS OF BOTH CANADA AND THE LOWER 48 STATES, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FORECAST NEAR THE BERING SEA COAST OF ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA, AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE WEST COAST TROUGH NOTED ABOVE RESULTS IN A BREAK IN THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ZONALLY ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDE ATLANTIC, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S., AND THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN SHOWS THE MOST AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE U.S. WEST COAST OF ALL THE MODEL RUNS. IT IS THOUGHT THAT THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) RAINFALL TOOL, DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE 6Z AND 12Z GFS MODELS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21 2008: FOR WEEK 2 MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS WHICH DEPICTS FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTING AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE, IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT SOME SHARPENING OF THE TROUGHS PREDICTED NEAR BOTH US COASTS. AN OVERALL DECREASE IN MONSOONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE PRIMARILY TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN PREDICTED HEIGHT FIELDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS). THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) RAINFALL TOOL, DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE 6Z AND 12Z GFS MODELS, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680709 - 19710721 - 19970617 - 19820628 - 19840625 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680707 - 19710720 - 19820628 - 19700718 - 19840625 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 17, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH N N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA A N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$