PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 09 - 13 2008 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS TEND TO SHOW THE EAST COAST TROUGH EDGING EASTWARD IN THE MEAN TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, BUT WEAK RIDGING RESULTS IN ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE MEAN, AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ON THE UNDERSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES OF THE PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE CONUS FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FROM NEW MEXICO INTO COLORADO. THE EUROPEAN MODEL BRINGS PLENTIFUL RAIN NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN MUCH MORE OF THE STATE DEPICTED IN THE NORMAL RANGE. WARMTH IS FORECAST FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD THROGH THE MIDWEST TO THE COAST, BUT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS DIFFER OVER THE WEST, WITH SOME INDICATING MORE WARMTH THAN SHOWN AND OTHERS LESS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CPC AUTOBLEND, AND THE NAEFS (NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM). THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE OUTPUT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) RAINFALL TOOL, AND OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2008: THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEAN PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST IS A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRESSURES OVER THE MIDWEST AND EAST SHOULD CONTINUE WARMTH FOR THESE REGIONS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REDUCE THE ODDS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF, AND MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BRING NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE MEAN RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, A DRIER PATTERN MAY TAKE HOLD IN THE CENTRAL STATES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD, THE CPC AUTOBLEND, AND THE NAEFS (NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM). THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) RAINFALL TOOL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT. DAILY PRECIPITATION MAPS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED FROM THE 12Z GFS RUN. FORECASTER: LE COMTE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19740614 - 19820621 - 19710717 - 19920623 - 19870630 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19820621 - 19920622 - 19870627 - 19740615 - 19820613 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA A B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17, 2008 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH B B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$